To prevent possible conflicts, Japan and China want to resume dialogue, but the Taiwan issue is still difficult to solve:

September 29 marks the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, which is regarded by the outside world as an opportunity to repair Japan-China relations. Experts believe that both leaders of Japan and China are willing to talk, Japan will not fully decouple from China's economy, and the Taiwan Strait issue does not contradict the Japan-China joint statement.

China looks to Kishida to improve ties

On September 16, the China-Japan Friendship Association, a Chinese exchange group with Japan, held a China-Japan Friendship Exchange Conference to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan by video linking the venue in Beijing. Cheng Yonghua, the former ambassador to Japan who is the executive vice president of the China-Japan Friendship Association, called the hype of "decoupling" unwise, and called on China and Japan to cooperate in the economic field.

China and Japan signed the "Sino-Japanese Joint Statement" on September 29, 1972, and formally established diplomatic relations.In the business calendar for the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China published on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, from January 9 to December 16, a total of 85 commemorative activities for the 50th anniversary of the normalization of Japan-China diplomatic relations are planned to be held. So far, various activities have been held as normal. These activities are basically sponsored by the private sector, and there is no official sponsored event.

Japan's "Sankei Shimbun" said in an editorial on August 9 that Japanese officials and citizens should cancel all related celebrations for the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China, so as not to send wrong information to China.

The Chinese Embassy in Japan and the Japan Federation of Economic Organizations (commonly known as "Keidanlian") held a seminar in Tokyo on the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan on September 12. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a video speech that the healthy and stable development of China-Japan relations should be promoted along the right track. Japanese Foreign Minister Lin Fangzheng also issued a message saying, "It is a mission and a duty to build a constructive and stable Japan-China relationship."

He Sishen, director of the Center for Japanese and East Asian Studies at Taiwan's Fu Jen Catholic University, said that although the current Japan-China relationship cannot be called friendly, compared with China's strong anti-Japanese behavior caused by the "nationalization" of the Diaoyu Islands ten years ago, the two sides are still very concerned about maintaining communication. Expect it. He pointed out to the Voice of America that Lin Fangzheng said on September 2 that he hopes to hold bilateral talks with China at the UN General Assembly at the end of this month, and Japan is also willing to maintain dialogue with China.

He Sishen pointed out that it can be seen that the leaders of Japan and China will not appear on the same stage in this year's commemorative ceremony by video or physical means, but they should also follow the example of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and South Korea at the end of August.

He Sishen said: "Under the confrontation between the United States and China, China has a sense of expectation for Japan, especially the faction that Fumio Kishida belongs to, the 'Hongikehui', which is different from the 'Qinghehui' led by Shinzo Abe. Leaders from the Hongikehui in the past usually can. Make the relationship between China and Japan more friendly. Kishida will be the leader of Japan for the next three years or so, and Beijing seems willing to give Kishida space. With the sharp confrontation between the United States and China and the rising tension in the Taiwan Strait, the two sides of China and Japan All want to keep the relationship under control.”

He Sishen pointed out that both Japan and China now have the will to resume high-level dialogue, hoping to avoid misunderstandings and unnecessary conflicts.

Madoka Fukuda, a professor at the Faculty of Law at Hosei University in Japan, said in an interview with VOA that both Japan and China really want to repair relations, especially after Russia invaded Ukraine, China and major European and American countries still maintain dialogue, while Japan is late. The delay in doing so also made the Kishida cabinet hope to open the opportunity for dialogue as soon as possible.

She said: "China conducted military exercises around the Taiwan Strait from August 4 to 7, and the talks between the Japanese and Chinese foreign ministers scheduled for August 4 were condemned by the G7 including Japan for encircling the Taiwan Strait. The fact that the military exercise was temporarily cancelled by the Chinese side on the same day did have an impact on the 50th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China. After China's military exercise around Taiwan in early August, the United States has strengthened its support for Taiwan, and even European countries have Expressing support is really a headache for China, then the strategic value of dialogue with Japan goes up.”

Japan will not decouple from China's comprehensive economy

The Japan Keidan Federation will hold the "Japan-China Tea Party" and the "Commemoration Ceremony for the 50th Anniversary of the Normalization of Japan-China Diplomatic Relations" on September 29, and is currently coordinating the attendance of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as a guest, and at the same time expressing hope to Beijing for the Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council sent messages.

The 40th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Japan and China in 2012, and the 45th anniversary in 2017, is also the establishment of the Executive Committee led by the Federation of Economic and Social Affairs.

He Sishen, director of the Center for Japanese and East Asian Studies at Taiwan's Fu Jen Catholic University, said that Jing Tuanlian cherishes its trade relations with China and will not easily decouple from China's economic and trade relations. He said that although Japan will play an important role in the Indo-Pacific economic framework IPEF promoted by the United States, and will have reservations about China in high-tech industries, given that a large number of Japanese businessmen mostly serve the domestic demand market in China, Japan will not play down its relationship with China. China's economic and trade exchanges.

He Sishen said: "The economy of China and Japan is basically not affected by the ups and downs of the political relationship between the two countries, and the two countries are pushing in a closer direction in terms of trade or investment. Although the epidemic has caused a lack of tourists in the past two or three years. Exchanges, but the economic and trade figures reflect that Japan still enjoys superiority to China. Especially due to the recent surge in the price of imported energy, Japan's trade is currently in deficit, but its trade with China is black (surplus).

" Chinese State Councilor

and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in a video on September 12 that China and Japan should jointly resist the wrong practice of "decoupling and breaking the chain" and maintain the stability and smoothness of the global "production and supply chain"; jointly oppose zero And the game and the camp confrontation.

In the video, Wang Yi called on the Japanese side to not be vague in the slightest, let alone sway back, regarding "major issues of principle fundamental to China-Japan relations" such as history and Taiwan. He also stressed that to ensure stable and long-term relations between the two countries, we must abide by the four political documents and commitments between China and Japan.

Professor Fukuda Yuan from the Faculty of Law of Hosei University in Japan said that the Japan-US alliance is the most important security guarantee for Japan. From the perspective of security, Japan's direction is to gradually promote decoupling from China in the strategic field.

She said: "Japan's "Economic Security Promotion Law" is also formulated in accordance with this policy, hoping to gradually reduce dependence on China, such as semiconductor and other cutting-edge industries. However, the economic and trade exchanges between Japan and China have a long history, and the degree of dependence It is still very high, and it is unlikely to move in the direction of decoupling in every aspect, so I believe that the basic policy of Japan’s economic policy towards China is to maintain and develop interdependence, and to emphasize communication for this.”

Fukuda Yuan said, on Japan The basic policy for the security of the Taiwan Strait is to emphasize the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait, and the second is to participate in and resolve this issue through the Japan-US security treaty system. From the historical background, this position does not contradict the position of the four political documents between China and Japan, including the Japan-China Joint Statement.

Fukuda Yuan pointed out that incidents such as China's military exercise against Taiwan in early August, especially the fact that a missile launched by China fell into Japan's exclusive economic zone, also forced Japan to increase the consideration of emergencies in the Taiwan Strait in its security policy. She said that these considerations have nothing to do with Taiwan independence or militarism, but even if Japan keeps explaining it, China does not seem to agree. This will be a difficult problem that the Kishida government must face.

He Sishen, director of the Center for Japanese and East Asian Studies at Taiwan's Fu Jen Catholic University, believes that the rapid rise in tensions across the Taiwan Strait in August will certainly put pressure on Japan's southern security. Therefore, Japan has strengthened its defense in the Nanxi Islands close to Taiwan, and is also equipped with counterattack equipment in addition to the reconnaissance equipment, but this does not mean that Japan wants to intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue.

He said: "Japan strengthens its defense deployment on the islands near Taiwan in order to increase its own warning time and strengthen the defense capabilities of the Nanxi Zhudao. It is legitimate for any country to enhance its self-defense capabilities, and China's opposition is also in ignorance. In my opinion, China also does not want the exercises around the Taiwan Strait to cause the deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations, or to give Japan a pretext to intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue. Therefore, although China and Japan will be involved in the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea (East China Sea), and the South China Sea (South China Sea). Continued tit-for-tat does not mean the two sides are heading for conflict."He Sishen pointed out that the new Japanese Defense Minister Yasushi Hamada and Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe should hold talks next, and will continue to promote the establishment of a Japan-China military "hotline". Both sides are working hard to increase military transparency through dialogue to reduce misunderstandings. Therefore, Japan-China relations will still develop within a controllable range.